Solid dozen for Preakness

Horseracing Betting Lines

05/13/2010 - Baltimore, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The 2010 Triple Crown traveling carnival takes up residence in Baltimore this Saturday for the 135th running of the $1 million Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course. The 1 3/16-mile race has attracted an evenly matched field of 12 three-year-olds for the second leg of racing's three-bagger.

Five of the starters are coming in from the Kentucky Derby headed by Run for the Roses winner Super Saver. Also coming back from the two-week break are Derby third-place finisher Paddy O'Prado, defeated favorite and sixth-place finisher Lookin At Lucky, the seventh-place finisher Dublin and Jackson Bend who was 12th.

Super Saver, with Calvin Borel riding, is the 5-2 morning-line favorite after winning the Derby at 8-1. Lookin At Lucky, the 6-1 Derby favorite, is the 3-1 second choice and will start from post seven on the immediate inside of Super Saver.

"There's not a really bad post in the Preakness," Lookin At Lucky's trainer Bob Baffert said. "I've won the race. I remember that Real Quiet got the 11. He was training so great and he got the 11, and I was just sick for a couple of days. Then all of a sudden I realized that at the end of the day it's the horse. If you have the horse, it doesn't matter what post you come out of."

Paddy O'Prado has been made the 9-2 third program pick after a major move up in the Derby. He again will start from post 10 with Kent Desormeaux out to redeem himself after his much talked about ride two weeks ago.

"Really, in a 12-horse field, there's not a terrible position to have," noted Paddy's trainer Dale Romans, "I didn't want to be in the one or 12 if we could help it, and anything else we were going to be happy with. Paddy didn't have a problem with the 10-hole in the Derby and I'd like to have him on the inside of First Dude. It gives us a few more options maybe."

Romans has First Dude in the Preakness with the colt breaking from post 11 and 20-1 in the program.

My Derby pick Dublin will break from the outside post with Garrett Gomez picking up the ride after losing the mount on Lookin At Lucky. His seventh- place finish at Churchill Downs has him at 10-1 in the morning-line.

Jackson Bend finished 19-lengths behind Super Saver two weeks ago, but is back for another try. He will be ridden by Mike Smith from post six and is 12-1 in the program.

The two 30-1 longshots are Northern Giant and Yawanna Twist, posts four and five respectively. Northern Giant was ninth in the Arkansas Derby and will be ridden by Terry Thompson who was on Dublin in the Derby. Yawanna Twist was second in the Illinois Derby and again will be handled by Edgar Prado.

At 20-1, in addition to First Dude, are Aikenite and Pleasant Prince. Aikenite is trained by Pletcher and is coming off a second-place finish in the Derby Trial. His inside post position should not be a factor,

"I suppose one wouldn't have been my first choice for Aikenite," Pletcher said, "but I really don't think the post positions are hugely important in this race. Eight was very good. I'm very happy with that."

Former jockey Wesley Ward sends out Pleasant Prince who was third in the Derby Trial. Eclipse Award winner Julien Leparoux has the mount from post three.

"I'm happy. I guess if I'd have been choosing one, Id have chosen four, five or seven," said owner Ken Ramsey. "But I'm happy with three. There's not much you can do about it, just take what you get. It's a lot different from the Derby. You've got almost half the number of horses, 12 compared to 20."

Trainer Derek Ryan sends out Schoolyard Dreams for a try at a second straight in-the-money Preakness finish. Last year Musket Man was third in both the Preakness and Kentucky Derby. Schoolyard Dreams is 15-1 in the program and will start from post two with Eibar Coa riding.

"I'd rather be down there than stuck way out on the outside," Ryan noted, "so we've got no complaints. He likes to be pretty close to the pace."

The only gelding in the field is Caracortado trained by Mike Machowsky. Paul Atkinson comes in from California to ride from the nine hole. Undefeated as a two-year-old, Caracortado is 10-1 in the morning-line.

"I'm thinking I might put my horse on the lead or in the race early," said Machowsky, "and I think the only other horse that has any sort of speed inside of me is Jackson Bend. We drew well. It's a solid field. I was talking to somebody this morning thinking that it's one of the best Preakness fields in a while as far as anybody can win it. I think all 12 horses have a shot."

Machowsky is absolutely correct. Any of the 12 has a chance to win the Preakness this year. That is why I will not be singling any of the entrants.

I liked Dublin in the Derby and will use him in a four horse exacta box. Along with Dublin I'm including Super Saver, Aikenite and Paddy O'Prado.

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SPORTS BETTING - Tennis is an underrated and under-utilized bettors' sport.

Ten years ago, at just about this time, I called Alan Boston in Vegas and left him a voicemail that went something like this (abridged version): "Hey Alan, Chad Millman from ESPN The Magazine calling. I want to do a book about wise guys, you in?"

A couple weeks later I got a message back (abridged version): "I don't know, maybe," Boston said. "Call me and we'll talk about it. But not later today. I got $1,000 on Andre Agassi to win the French Open at 40-1, and he's in the finals."

Here's what happened next (abridged version): Agassi won his tourney. Boston won his $40,000. I wrote sportsbook.

In the ten years since, how much has been wagered on the big-time tennis events? Put it this way: The Nevada Gaming Commission doesn't even track the number year by year because it's so small.

"Tennis makes up about one-tenth of one percent of our take," says Lucky's bookmaking boss Jimmy Vaccaro. "The last big golf major we probably had $100,000 worth of bets. In tennis, we might have written two big tickets."

Tennis' lack of popularity amongst the American bettoratti is no surprise, really. For starters, the biggest sports betting holidays -- the Super Bowl, the NCAA tourney -- are must see TV. People, at least the degenerates I know, plan vacations around watching those events in Vegas sports books.

But Wimbledon? Doesn't exactly reel in the whales. "Seriously, it's the nuts as an event," says Boston. "But who even knows when it's on?"

Here's another reason that helps explain why golf gets traction, something I call "The Bubbe Theory." My Bubbe is pushing 95 and has cataracts so bad that, to her, even the most crystalline Chicago day is mostly cloudy. But she still listens to the Cubs games, and she still calls me in a fit if she disagrees with something Rick Telander writes in the Chicago Sun Times. She's a sports fan. If she doesn't know you, you're just filling a niche. And niche players, even historically good ones like Roger and Raf, don't drive betting volume. Only the highest profile names attract square money, which inflates wagering totals like a shot of saline to the lips. Bubbe, and the public, loved Agassi, tennis' last cross-the-rubicon, mainstream draw. She also has a crush on Tiger. She's given me standing orders to put a sawbuck on the big cat whenever I walk through a sports book (or mistakenly tap into one via my Internet machine.) That explains why the Masters is getting $100K in action at some books while the four tennis majors might not get that combined this year.

This isn't a case of tennis being a difficult sport to bet. In fact, in Europe, it's probably the second most popular sport for gambling after soccer. Granted, as the WSJ football betting last week and The Mag's Shaun Assael examined in even greater depth last year, that might be because gamblers across the pond see it as an easy game to fix. But it could also be because, over there it holds the kind of sway the big two do over here.

Street corners in Spain are peppered with public courts and kids doing their best Raffy impressions. In some war torn parts of Eastern Europe poverty-stricken kids view tennis as an escape route, like football or basketball here. A couple years ago The Mag's Lindsay Berra wrote a great piece about Belgrade's Jelena Jankovic, Ana Ivanovic and Novak Djokovic. They learned the game as kids while bombs were raining down on their homeland. They practiced in drained swimming pools. Not exactly Nick Bolletierri conditions.

In the United States, casual fans think tennis is played four times a year. But on the tightly packed European continent, national interest in homegrown talent runs deep every weekend. Of the ATP's current top 20 players, only two, tennis betting and James Blake, are American. Fourteen are from Europe, representing six different countries.

No wonder fans from Lisbon to Bhudapest get jacked up for the net game, whether it's Wimbledon or a low-level tourney like the Estoril Open in Portugal (congrats to Spain's Albert Montanes for winning that one, btw). Chances are good that someone representing their flag will not only be playing, but have a shot at winning.

And that's all any bettor can ask for.

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