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12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The St. Louis Rams still have a shot at a playoff berth, and will put their chances on the line Sunday when they pay a visit to the Minnesota Vikings at the Metrodome.
The Rams have won two in a row, and defeated the Washington Redskins, 37-31, in overtime last Sunday. But they need a lot of help from other clubs this week in order to reach the playoffs for the sixth time in the last eight seasons. Head coach Scott Linehan's squad is one of five teams in the NFC with a 7-8 record and still in the hunt for the final Wild Card berth as Week 17 begins.
St. Louis must defeat Tampa Bay and have the New York Giants, Carolina Panthers and Atlanta Falcons all lose or tie to reach the postseason.
Minnesota, meanwhile, is out of the playoffs for the second straight year, and first-year head coach Brad Childress will have some work to do this offseason. Childress has been heavily criticized during the team's current 2-7 stretch, with complaints ranging from his offensive philosophy to his handling of veteran players.
Most recent, Childress has been question for his decision to bench quarterback Brad Johnson in favor of youngster Tarvaris Jackson. Jackson played poorly in last Thursday's 9-7 loss to the Green Bay Packers at Lambeau Field.
That defeat clinched Minnesota's first losing season since 2002.
SERIES HISTORY
Minnesota has a 17-13-2 advantage in its all-time series against St. Louis, including a 27-13 home victory in the most recent meeting, in Week 14 of last season. The Rams won the previous two meetings, in 2000 and 2003, in the Gateway City. The Rams are 0-3 in regular season games played in the Twin Cities since last winning there in 1978.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams met in the playoffs seven times between 1969 and 1999. Minnesota has a 5-2 edge in the postseason series, beating the then-Los Angeles Rams for the NFC Championship in 1974 and 1976, and also taking playoff victories in 1969, 1977, and 1988. The Rams defeated Minnesota in NFC Divisional Playoff contests in 1978 and 1999.
The Rams' Linehan and Vikings' Childress will be meeting one another, as well as each other's respective franchise, for the first time.
RAMS OFFENSE VS. VIKINGS DEFENSE
Pro Bowl-bound quarterback Marc Bulger surpassed the 4,000-yard passing mark for the first time in his career in last week's win over Washington. Bulger (4,053 yards, 23 TDs, 8 INTs), who also established a personal single-season best for touchdown passes, scorched the Redskins for 388 yards and four TDs without an interception. The West Virginia product has eclipsed the 300-yard passing mark in three of the last four weeks, and has seven TD passes and one pick over the last three. He leads the leagues fourth-best passing attack thanks in large part to star receivers Torry Holt and Isaac Bruce. Holt (84 catches 1,098 yards, 10 TDs), who is also headed to the Pro Bowl, ranks third in the NFC in yards and has seven straight 1,000-yard seasons. His 9,797 yards since 2000 are the most in the NFL. Bruce (70 catches, 1,032 yards, 3 TDs) eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the eighth time in his career last Sunday against the Redskins, hauling in nine passes for a season-high 148 yards and a touchdown. Bruce now has 13,310 receiving yards, and passed Andre Reed (13,198) for seventh on the all-time list. Bulger, Holt and Bruce should have strong days against the Minnesota defense, which is the worst in the NFL against the pass, allowing 238.0 yards a game. Bulger was sacked just once last week, but has been dropped 49 times this season.
Minnesota will try to put Bulger on his back a few times this week, with defensive ends Kenechi Udeze (25 tackles) and Darrion Scott (43 tackles, 5 1/2 sacks) attempting to apply pressure off the edges. The line did not register a sack against Brett Favre last week. The Vikings' secondary received some bad news when starting cornerback and rookie Cedric Griffin (41 tackles, 2 INTs) was placed on injured reserve with a neck/shoulder injury. Also, cornerback Fred Smoot (61 tackles, INT) was placed on the reserve/non-football injury list after suffering a fractured jaw in an automobile accident over the weekend. Childress will opt to put either Charles Gordon or Ronyell Whitaker in the starting lineup at right cornerback. Gordon (7 tackles) and/or Whitaker (23 tackles) will have to be helped by safeties Dwight Smith (74 tackles, sack, 4 INTs) and Darren Sharper (61 tackles, sack, 4 INTs) in the last line of defense. Also, left cornerback Antoine Winfield (92 tackles, 4 INTs) needs one more interception to set a career high in that category. Sharper owns one pick, three forced fumbles and fumble recovery in his past three meetings against St. Louis.
Steven Jackson was named the Rams' MVP of the 2006 season earlier this week, and deservedly so. Jackson (1,386 yards, 10 TDs) further emerged from the shadows of Marshall Faulk in last week's win over Washington, recording 252 total yards (150 rush, 102 receive) and two TDs including a 21-yard scoring run in overtime to keep the Rams' slim playoff chances alive. Jackson leads the NFC in yards from scrimmage, and has already established a franchise record for receptions by a running back in one season with 88. Jackson has a touchdown run in three straight games (4 total), and has reached the century mark in each of the last two contests. The Vikings are ranked No. 1 in the NFL defending the rush, so Jackson will have to prove that his recent statistics don't lie.
Two-time Pro Bowl defensive tackle Kevin Williams (33 tackles, 5 sacks) has more incentive to play hard this week, after signing a contract extension a few days before Christmas. Williams, who has a career-high nine tackles for loss and seven passes defensed this season, is a big reason why Minnesota is ranked at the top of the league at defending the run. The Vikings have ended the season ranked first in the NFL against the run twice in team history, in 1975 and 1994. Pat Williams (42 tackles, sack) plays opposite of his namesake to give the Vikings bulk in the middle. Jackson will have to work extra hard to penetrate the Minnesota front four, and if he does, linebackers E.J. Henderson (105 tackles, 3 sacks, 2 INTs), Napoleon Harris (51 tackles, 2 1/2 sacks, 3 INTs), and Ben Leber (43 tackles, 3 sacks, INT) will have to be ready. The trio had an easy time with Green Bay last week and held the Packers to 46 total yards rushing.
VIKINGS OFFENSE VS. RAMS DEFENSE
Tarvaris Jackson (262 yards, TD, 2 INTs) will make his second start on Sunday, and what qualifies as his final meaningful audition for No. 1 duties heading into 2006. Jackson, who is more elusive than benched veteran Brad Johnson, was 10-of-20 for just 50 yards with an interception in Green Bay. The offense has struggled for most of the season, and the recent release of wide receiver Marcus Robinson (29 catches, 381 yards, 4 TDs) opened some eyes in the locker room. Travis Taylor, Troy Williamson, Bethel Johnson and Billy McMullen will be the Minnesota receivers available for Sunday's game. Taylor (52 catches, 597 yards, 2 TDs) leads the team in yards, while Williamson (37 catches, 455 yards), McMullen (19 catches, 260 yards, 2 TDs) and Johnson (8 catches, 137 yards) serve as secondary choices for the NFL's 19th-ranked passing attack. Tight end Jermaine Wiggins (45 catches, 381 yards, TD) needs just five receptions for a third straight season with 50 or more catches. The wideouts won't be able to make plays if the offensive line has trouble protecting Jackson in the pocket. Jackson was sacked three times against the Packers, and four times in three total appearances this season.
Rams defensive end Leonard Little (55 tackles, 12 sacks) is having another strong season in the Gateway City. Little is near the top of the NFL list in sacks, and has come on strong with seven over the past eight weeks. He wasn't able to get to Redskins quarterback Jason Campbell, however. DE Victor Adeyanju (34 tackles, sack) is listed as probable after missing the last five weeks with a forearm injury. The Rams secondary shut down Washington's trio of receivers on Sunday, and will look to do the same against the Vikings' corps. Cornerbacks Fakhir Brown (60 tackles, sack, 3 INTs), Tye Hill (46 tackles, 3 INTs), and safety O.J. Atogwe (68 tackles, sack, 3 INTs) are tied for the team lead in picks. The rookie Hill took over the starting job when Travis Fisher was lost for the season because of an arm injury, and has emerged as the team's most promising corner. Hill earned the Carroll Rosenbloom Award as the Rams' rookie of the year earlier this week. The Rams are eighth in the NFL against the pass this season.
Vikings running back Chester Taylor (1,185 yards, TD) is having a career season in Minnesota, and needs 115 yards to join former Viking Robert Smith as the only players in franchise history to rush for 1,300 yards in a season. Taylor, who had 49 yards on 15 touches against Green Bay and failed to score a touchdown for the third straight game, is five carries shy of setting a team record set by Smith (295) in 2000. Taylor should have a better week against the Rams, who are 31st against the rush this season, allowing 149.7 yards a game. Backup running backs Mewelde Moore (121 yards) and Artose Pinner (183 yards, 3 TDs) will take over for Taylor when he needs a blow. The Vikings are 16th in the NFL in rushing.
Rams tackles Jimmy Kennedy (36 tackles), La'Roi Glover (36 tackles, 5 1/2 sacks) and Jason Fisk (20 tackles) provide the bulk up front. Glover owns four sacks in his last six games, but was part of a St. Louis group that had trouble stopping Redskins running back Ladell Betts, who notched 129 yards and two TDs last week. St. Louis has allowed a pair of 100-yard rushers in the past four weeks. Behind the front four are linebackers Will Witherspoon (105 tackles, 2 sacks), Dexter Coakley (25 tackles, 2 INTs) and Brandon Chillar (55 tackles, 2 sacks). Witherspoon, who is probable with a knee injury, leads the team in tackles, and posted five versus Washington.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Though he will be facing a Minnesota team for which he once served as an assistant, Linehan is in unfamiliar territory with his current team perhaps on the brink of the playoffs. Luckily, Linehan has Steven Jackson in the backfield and Bulger, Holt, and Bruce in the passing game, all players who can help guide his team through a potentially big game. St. Louis certainly has the advantage because of its multi-headed monster on offense, and Vikings rookie Tarvaris Jackson, though he should play better than he did in Green Bay, is going to have trouble matching the prolific Rams attack score-for- score.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Rams 31, Vikings 21
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My fellow Americans, as tempting as it may be to don the coat and HD-ready tie in order to deliver this State of the Game address before the cameras, I know better. As Brad Paisley sings on his latest album, "I'm so much cooler online."
The ideas for this annual essay to kick off the MySportsbook.com college football betting preview flowed like frat-house beer, which is to say they were cheap and spilled all over the floor. The 2007 season will be better than 2007, if only because there will be more of it. A year ago, the NCAA Football Rules Committee made two rule changes in the interest of speeding up the game. These changes went over like Kobe burgers at a vegan banquet.
To its credit, the rules committee rectified its mistakes. This season the clock once again will start when a kickoff is received, rather than when it is kicked, and the clock will not start so quickly on a change of possession.
However, kickoffs have been moved back five yards, to the 30, which will force more returns. (Thus forcing the clock to run. Clever, huh?) Special teams might decide a lot of games, because coaching strategy will come straight out of another new Paisley lyric (almost), I'd like to check you for kicks.
Paisley sings with a twang, which is why he's appropriate for this college football season. The sun coming up over the 2007 college football betting lines season rises from the south. It's a Southern football world. As the Southeastern Conference begins its 75th year, the power shift is noticeable.
Eight-figure budgets, glamorous settings -- and that's just for the head coaches. The SEC has four coaches who have won national championships -- the greatest aggregation of coaching know-how since Eddie Robinson dined alone.
Steve Spurrier, Phil Fulmer, Nick Saban and Urban Meyer have given lie to the idea that a conference championship game is too daunting a hurdle on the road to No. 1. In six of the past 10 seasons, the national champions played and won a conference championship game -- three of the six (Tennessee, 1998; LSU, 2003; Florida, 2007) from the SEC.
There will be more of the same this season, if the preseason prognostications are correct. Six SEC teams are in the preseason coaches' poll, more than from any other conference. Only one conference has talent so deep that a team with 15 returning starters, including the best quarterback in the league, from an eight-win season is considered an afterthought. That may speak more to Kentucky's losing legacy than to the wisdom of the predictions, but there you have it. And seriously, keep an eye on Wildcats QB Andre' Woodson.
The reach of the South extends all the way to No. 1. Take a look at the team that is a consensus pick to win the national championship. The quarterback is from Shreveport. The best wide receiver is from Nashville. The top recruit is from New Orleans.
So what's the campus doing in Los Angeles? Hey, it is the University of Southern California.
USC lost two Pacific-10 Conference games a year ago, the first time that had happened in five seasons, and university officials withstood the urge to form blue-ribbon panels to unearth the cause of such a disaster. Instead, the Trojans gathered themselves and routed Michigan, 32-18, in the Rose Bowl.
USC's losses at Oregon State and at UCLA last year should have given pause to those who question the Pac-10's football prowess (such as, without naming names, L.M. from Baton Rouge). The league only got deeper this season; Dennis Erickson is taking over an Arizona State team that never quite got out of its own way under his predecessor, Dirk Koetter.
Erickson will resume his quest to become the first coach to win a national championship at two schools. Both he and Spurrier, now in his third season at South Carolina, returned to college football at schools with lower profiles than where they won their titles.
That isn't the case for the third coach looking for the national championship double. You may have missed this, but NASA reported the astronauts on the space shuttle last spring made contact with what can only be described as beings from another galaxy.
The leader of the aliens said, "We come in peace," followed by, "So how do you think Nick Saban will do at Alabama?"
The public is reacting to the new Crimson Tide coach as if he is the Barry Bonds of college football -- beloved at home for what his fans believe he is going to do, hated on the road for his intimidating attitude and for what his detractors believe he did (bend NCAA recruiting rules). I made this comparison from the dais at a charity dinner in Mobile, Ala., last month, and the chill that washed over me didn't come from the air conditioning.
Saban will attempt to prove that he can remake in Tuscaloosa what he built in Baton Rouge, much like another member of the national championship fraternity. Bobby Bowden is attempting to remake at Florida State what he built at, um, Florida State. Bowden rebuilt his offensive staff, bringing in four new coaches led by Saban's former offensive coordinator, Jimbo Fisher, to jump-start an offense that has been dead for a couple of years.
The Atlantic Coast Conference is expected to show new signs of life, too. That is said with no disrespect toward last season's champion, Wake Forest, which provided one of the best story lines of 2007. The Demon Deacons begin this season in their customary position, overshadowed by the Virginia Techs, Miamis and Florida States.
It's not that Wake will find it difficult to duplicate its success in 2007 as much as the feeling that success engendered. Surprising success is the narcotic of sport. It never feels quite so euphoric the next time. Big East commissioner Mike Tranghese has figured this out. He refers to 2007, when a league looked down upon by fans and foes alike took three undefeated teams into November, as "Cinderella."
The fairy tale may be over, but the Big East has four genuine Heisman Trophy candidates in Louisville quarterback Brian Brohm, West Virginia tailback Steve Slaton and quarterback Pat White, and Rutgers tailback Ray Rice. Rutgers, as did Wake Forest and, of course, Boise State, proved last season that the have-nots in college football occasionally have quite a lot.
The Broncos' rousing 43-42 overtime victory over Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl has raised the profile of all schools in conferences that don't get automatic BCS bids. This season, TCU and Hawaii are the preseason favorites to burst through the BCS doors and earn an at-large bid. The Warriors return 14 starters from an 11-3 team, including quarterback Colt Brennan.
Brennan not only broke the single-season record with 58 touchdown passes in 2007, but he also led Division I-A in passing efficiency (186.0). The senior is expected to contend for the Heisman Trophy, and neither his success nor the rise of his team should come as any surprise in the 2007 season.
After all, Hawaii is the southernmost team in the country.
To visit this sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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