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09/03/2010 - Flushing Meadows, NY (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Five-time champion Roger Federer and third-seeded Novak Djokovic of Serbia were among Thursday's second-round winners at the U.S. Open.
The second-seeded former top-ranked Federer cruised past German Andreas Beck 6-3, 6-4, 6-3 at Ashe Stadium. The super Swiss moved on in 1 hour, 41 minutes by ripping 15 aces, while Beck piled up 11 double faults and 36 unforced errors.
Federer captured U.S. Open titles from 2004-08 and was stunned by big Argentine Juan Martin del Potro in last year's finale here. The Swiss great is a brilliant 53-5 lifetime here in Flushing.
The amazing 16-time major champ Federer, who will face Frenchman Paul-Henri Mathieu in the round of 32, is the reigning Australian Open titlist.
"No, it's the perfect start, sure. I played Monday, had two days off. I had another easy one physically today, and here I am in the third round feeling like I'm completely in the tournament," Federer said. "I got a sense for how the court speed is again. I got the sense of the crowd and the wind now as well. I played one night, one day. I have all the answers after two matches. Obviously they weren't the most difficult matches, you know."
Djokovic got past German Philipp Petzschner 7-5, 6-3, 7-6 (8-6) during the night session. Former Aussie Open champ Djokovic lost to Federer in the 2007 U.S. Open final.
Next up for Djokovic is American James Blake, who took down Peter Polansky of Canada, 6-7 (1-7), 6-3, 6-2, 6-4.
Two-time French Open runner-up Robin Soderling subdued oft-injured veteran American Taylor Dent 6-2, 6-2, 6-4. The fifth-seeded Soderling cruised in just over an hour-and-a-half, as the Swedish slugger uncorked 14 aces and held his serve throughout.
Talented former top-10 Frenchman Richard Gasquet posted an upset by blasting sixth-seeded Russian Nikolay Davydenko off the Grandstand Court, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2. The top-10 fixture Davydenko was a back-to-back U.S. Open semifinalist in 2006 and 2007.
Another upset came when Japanese Kei Nishikori outlasted 11th-seeded Aussie Open semifinalist Marin Cilic, of Croatia, in a five-hour marathon, 5-7, 7-6 (8-6), 3-6, 7-6 (7-3), 6-1.
Jurgen Melzer, the 13th seed, of Austria outlasted Lithuanian Ricardas Berankis 6-4, 6-7 (4-7), 6-3, 1-6, 7-5.
Surging American Mardy Fish was also an easy second-round winner on Day 4. The 19th-seeded Fish recorded his 18th win in 20 matches with a comprehensive 7-5, 6-0, 6-2 two-hour victory over Uruguay's Pablo Cuevas at Armstrong Stadium. The Minnesota native popped 14 aces and broke Cuevas' serve a whopping seven times in 13 tries.
Fish owns a pair of titles this summer and was the Cincinnati Masters runner- up to the great Federer last month.
"This is the spot that I want to be in," Fish said. "You know, you want to be the favorite and winning a lot."
Up next for Fish will be former Aussie Open runner-up Arnaud Clement. The French Clement was leading Eduardo Schwank 6-3, 5-5 when the Argentine retired at the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center.
Spaniard Juan Carlos Ferrero, the 22nd seed, defeated Ricardo Mello of Brazil 6-1, 6-4, 6-4. Former French Open champion Ferrero was the U.S. Open runner-up in 2003.
Kevin Anderson of South Africa upset 26th-seeded Thomaz Bellucci of Brazil 6-7 (4-7), 6-4, 5-7, 6-4, 7-6 (7-2).
Spain's Albert Montanes, seeded 21st, drilled Aussie Carsten Ball 6-4, 6-3, 6-1, while Mathieu bested fellow Frenchman Guillaume Rufin 7-6 (7-3), 6-4, 6-3 on another very-hot day.
Thiemo De Bakker of the Netherlands was beating Croat Ivan Dodig, 6-7 (4-7), 6-2, 6-3, 3-2, when Dodig retired from the match.
<< Vikings down Denver in final preseason game
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Javon Walker caught a 63-yard touchdown
pass from Joe Webb in the fourth quarter, helping Minnesota edge Denver,
31-24, in the preseason finale for both teams.
Brett Favre took the night off fo
<< Cowboys end preseason with win over Miami
Arlington, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - David Buehler's 31-yard field goal with time
expiring lifted the Dallas Cowboys to a 27-25 victory over the Miami Dolphins
in the teams' preseason finale.
Buehler kicked four field goals in the victory, a
<< Titans down Saints in exhibition finale
Nashville, TN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Albert Pearman spearheaded a huge rushing
attack with 36 yards and a touchdown and Kerry Collins completed 8-of-17
passes for 89 yards as Tennessee held off New Orleans, 27-24, in the preseason
finale
<< Bucs finish preseason with win over Texans
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rudy Carpenter threw a pair of touchdowns as
the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took down the Houston Texans, 24-17, in the preseason
finale for both squads.
Carpenter was 15-for-22 for 203 yards for the Buccaneers,
Laird's homer wins it, as Tigers outlast Twins >>
Minneapolis, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Gerald Laird's 13th-inning home run was the
difference, as the Detroit Tigers pulled out a 10-9 victory over the Minnesota
Twins in the finale of a three-game series.
Laird's blast was one of five Tigers
Cardinals defeat Redskins in final preseason game >>
Glendale, AZ (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rookie Max Hall connected on 7-of-9 passes for
126 yards and ran for a touchdown and Jay Feely kicked a pair of field goals
to lead Arizona to a 20-10 victory over Washington in the final preseason
tuneup
49ers edge Chargers to complete unbeaten preseason >>
San Francisco, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nate Davis' two-yard touchdown pass to
Jehuu Caulcrick in the fourth quarter lifted the San Francisco 49ers over the
San Diego Chargers, 17-14, in the preseason finale for both clubs.
Davis completed
Raiders take down Seahawks in preseason finale >>
Oakland, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Bruce Gradkowski threw for 128 yards and two
scores on 7-of-14 passing, as the Oakland Raiders edged the Seattle Seahawks,
27-24, in the teams' preseason finale.
Kyle Boller completed 7-of-13 pass attempts
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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