Carmona, Indians open road series in the Bronx

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05/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last time Fausto Carmona stepped on the mound at new Yankee Stadium, the Indians' offense erupted in a record-tying performance. Given how Cleveland's offense struggled in its last game, the club hopes its hurler can serve as a good-luck charm again tonight.

Carmona and the Indians hope to get hot tonight when they embark on a 10-game road trip this evening with the opener of a four-game series versus hosting New York.

Cleveland and New York meet for the first time this season tonight and though the Yankees won five of eight matchups last year, their first series ever at their new ballpark in 2009 featured a contest that Indians fans won't soon forget.

The two clubs went on to split the four-game series, the first ever at new Yankee Stadium, but the Indians left their impression on the fresh building with a 22-4 drubbing in the series' third game. Carmona started and allowed a two-run homer by Mark Teixeira in the first inning, but Cleveland answered with a franchise-record-tying 14-run second inning.

Backed with plenty of support, Carmona picked up his first-ever victory over the Yankees after giving up four runs on six hits over six innings. Lifetime versus New York, the right-hander is 1-2 with a 5.17 earned run average in eight games, five of those starts.

Carmona's 2010 season is off to a solid start, but he is coming off his second loss of the season, a six-inning effort versus the Reds on Saturday in which he allowed five runs -- three earned -- on seven hits and two walks. Though Carmona fell to 4-2 on the season with a 3.45 ERA, he did pitch at least six innings for the eighth time in nine starts this year.

The 26-year-old enters the Bronx for the second time with a 3-0 mark and 2.16 ERA in four road starts this year. He'll also work alongside an offense that struggled for much of Wednesday's 5-4 setback to Chicago, Cleveland's eighth defeat in its last 10 games.

The Indians managed just Jhonny Peralta's run-scoring sac fly in the fourth inning through the game's first eight innings despite White Sox starter Mark Buehrle being ejected in the third inning for arguing a second balk call. Cleveland managed to make things close in the ninth inning off Bobby Jenks thanks to Travis Hafner's pinch-hit bases-loaded walk and former Yankee Shelley Duncan's pinch-hit two-run single with no outs.

However, after a Trevor Crowe sac bunt and an intentional walk to Shin-Soo Choo to load the bases, Austin Kearns struck out swinging and Russell Branyan flied out to end the game.

"We put up a fight at the end but we continue to be inconsistent with our situational hitting early in the game," said Cleveland manager Manny Acta. "That hurts us and then we have to play catch up at the end."

New York's Phil Hughes will try to have Cleveland playing from behind again tonight when he makes the start.

Hughes has begun to cool off since his red-hot start, as he has gone 0-1 over his last two starts with nine runs allowed after beginning the season 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA in six starts. The right-hander yielded five runs in a no-decision against Boston on May 17 before suffering the loss against the Mets on Saturday after allowing four runs on a season-high eight hits over 5 2/3 innings.

"I was off today," said Hughes after the loss to the Mets lifted his season ERA to 2.72. "It seems like the last couple of starts I get a quick two outs and then can't put the inning away."

The 23-year-old is 1-0 with a 4.09 ERA lifetime versus the Indians in two starts.

New York has lost six of its last nine, but was in line to record a sweep of its three-game set with Minnesota on Thursday. However, starter Javier Vazquez allowed five runs on eight hits and three walks over 5 2/3 innings and 112 pitches and the Yankees lost, 8-2.

"We won two games, I don't want to overlook that. We beat a very good Minnesota team two out of three," said Yankees manager Joe Girardi.

While Girardi is glad his team won the series, Thursday's loss, which featured two RBI from Robinson Cano, dropped New York 4 1/2 games behind Tampa Bay for first place in the American League East.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

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