Cardinals try to end first half with needed win over Astros

Baseball Betting Lines

07/11/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The skidding St. Louis Cardinals can climb within a game of first place to end the season's unofficial first half today, when they visit Minute Maid Park for the finale of a three-game series with the Houston Astros.

The Cardinals fell, 4-1, to the Astros in Saturday's middle test and remained two games in back of the first-place Cincinnati Reds in the National League's Central Division. Cincinnati lost, 1-0, in 11 innings at Philadelphia - the third straight time they've lost to the Phillies in extra frames.

Houston's Jeff Keppinger had two hits, including a home run, to back another strong outing from Brett Myers in Houston's victory last night. Pedro Feliz chipped in with a two-run single for the Astros, who have won four of their last five.

Myers (6-6) went eight innings to grab the win, yielding just the lone run on five hits while fanning five. The right-hander is the only starting pitcher in the big leagues to have gone six innings or more in each of his starts (18) this year.

Houston closer Matt Lindstrom worked around a pair of walks in the ninth to register his 21st save of the season.

Jeff Suppan (0-5) took the loss in his 100th career start as a member of the Cardinals after giving up four runs on seven hits and three walks over 4 2/3 innings. St. Louis fell for a fourth time in their its five games.

Second-year righty Blake Hawksworth gets the start tonight for St. Louis, just the fifth time in his career he'll open a game on the mound.

The 27-year-old Canadian was used exclusively out of the bullpen last season, making 30 appearances, then began this season with 18 relief outings before a spot start June 7 at the Los Angeles Dodgers. He returned to the bullpen for three more stints before beginning a stretch of three starts with a win at Kansas City on June 26.

Hawksworth was touched for eight hits and two runs in five innings his last time out, getting a no-decision in the Cardinals' 12-9 loss at Colorado on Tuesday. He tossed an inning of scoreless relief against the Astros on May 12 and has allowed just one hit in four relief innings spanning four appearances versus Houston.

For Houston, lefty Wandy Rodriguez faces the Cardinals for the third time this season. The 31-year-old dropped a 5-0 decision on April 12 in St. Louis, then bounced back for a 9-6 win in a subsequent road matchup on May 12. In those outings, he's combined to give up 12 hits and eight earned runs in 10 1/3 innings.

Lifetime against St. Louis, Rodriguez is just 4-10 with a 4.29 earned run average in 17 appearances.

He's won three straight starts after beginning the season at 3-10, however, the most recent coming against Pittsburgh on Tuesday. In the three wins, Rodriguez has given up 15 hits and four runs in 20 innings.

With Saturday's win, the Astros have now taken five of eight matchups with St. Louis thus far this season.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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